PDF Download Ahead of the Curve: A Commonsense Guide to Forecasting Business and Market Cycles
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Ahead of the Curve: A Commonsense Guide to Forecasting Business and Market Cycles
PDF Download Ahead of the Curve: A Commonsense Guide to Forecasting Business and Market Cycles
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Review
"Bewitched, bothered and befuddled by the daily drizzle of economic data? Joseph H. Ellis has a cure." -- Bloomberg News"The recession obsession is a terrible mistake...We need to find a way to talk about slowing rates of growth." -- New York Times
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About the Author
Joseph H. Ellis was a partner of Goldman Sachs and was ranked for eighteen consecutive years by Institutional Investor magazine as Wall Street's #1 retail-industry analyst.
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Product details
Hardcover: 256 pages
Publisher: Harvard Business Review Press; 51644th edition (October 11, 2005)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 1591396913
ISBN-13: 978-1591396918
Product Dimensions:
6.5 x 1.5 x 9.8 inches
Shipping Weight: 1.4 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
Average Customer Review:
3.6 out of 5 stars
39 customer reviews
Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
#403,949 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
Joe Ellis's book was recommended to me by professional investor so I picked up it. I found it very worthwhile. While Ellis's approach to forecasting the business cycle using economic indicators is biased by his strong retail background and I can quibble with a few of his assertions, overall his central thesis that consumer spending drives the US economy and therefore closely monitoring economic indicators associated with consumer income and expenditures is reasonable. He provides some good insights on the correlations between various economic data and has strong opinions as to what is causal, what leads, what lags, and what is just correlation. He also does a very good job of providing context and historical perspective. At one time he had a web-site that kept the data / models up to date, but unfortunately that is no longer the case. The book was published in 2005 and had data through mid 2004 and there were a couple of points that he made that would have provided clues that would have foretold the great recession in 2008. So overall an informative read.
Mr. Ellis' professional track-record is virtually universally recognized as unassailable. Consistency means everything in investing, and as America's economy of consumption seems prepared to power dive into terrain, Ellis' remarks will be seem either obvious or alarming. After all, the title tells us that it's 'common sense.' And it really is.If you want drama, watch CNBC. If you want reason, read this book. The entire book is built on painfully obvious observations, so those seeking analytical rigor or "an edge" will be left wanting. But for patient people, this book offers an opportunity to avoid very predictable mistakes at every turn in the business cycle.Ellis' advice to wake up and get over the "recession obsession" is particularly timely (again) at the end of 2007. As the markets reprice or just write-down the subprime meltdown by tens of billions at a whack, and as we watch consumer spending remain bewilderingly robust while year-over-year increases in credit card delinquency rates hit double digits and unit energy prices reach for records, the old-timers know *exactly* where this is going. So Ellis tells us: don't dwell on recession; accept that it will be recognized (late, by definition) and position yourself (now!) for the recovery.Ellis' style is very readable, not always persuasive on the details (again, the lack of rigor) and mostly obvious. But if you didn't get it the first time around, you need to buy this book. Finally, the companion website -- which is free -- will be of interest to (and a timesaver for) many armchair investors.
Maybe its when I went to school or maybe its that I've spent 42 years trading (about the same amount of time as the author) but what this book offers is a dressed up version of the PCE (personal consumption expenditures) macro-economic model that I was introduced to in college Econ 101 in the 70's. Oh he has nice charts for to support his points and all, but there is nothing terribly new here that hasn't been around for some time, the author just renamed it with some new acronym.Early in the book you get the impression that this is going to lead to something practical. Forget it. This is just a rehash of a nearly 40 year old model. The author talks about what you should do and that the information is free...Now all you have to do is find it (no suggestions as to where) and have a geek write software to perform the various 3 month rolling year of year computations...Oh...and its really not a model you can trade except for certain industries and sectors that might not be affected by...well anything not in the model...Which is just about everything. And the at website he promises has updated information on it? Gone...the domain is up for sale.I'm sending this book back...I already have my notes from college...including a version of the model he has in the book. Spend your money and you time elsewhere.
The author's approach toward economic data is very refreshing, in that he works quite hard at finding data that is predictive of stock market declines. Just the chapter on the "recession obsession", and why its bad for you makes the whole book worthwhile. It really put a lot of economic numbers in perspective, and made me realize it was actually possible to use economic numbers to your advantage.I would also add that his writing style is very easy to follow. While it definitely helps if you have some background in economics, it is really not necessary.
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